A new GLO Discussion Paper provides an assessment of the targeted approach to COVID-19 containment. Under a targeted policy, the optimal containment reaches a larger portion of the population than under a blanket policy. Compared to a blanket policy, a targeted approach results in a smaller death count.
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GLO Discussion Paper No. 752, 2021
Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19 – Download PDF
by Checo, Ariadne & Grigoli, Francesco & Mota, Jose M.
GLO Fellow Francesco Grigoli
Author Abstract: The large economic costs of full-blown lockdowns in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, coupled with heterogeneous mortality rates across age groups, led to question non-discriminatory containment measures. In this paper we provide an assessment of the targeted approach to containment. We propose a SIR-macro model that allows for heterogeneous agents in terms of mortality rates and contact rates, and in which the government optimally bans people from working. We find that under a targeted policy, the optimal containment reaches a larger portion of the population than under a blanket policy and is held in place for longer. Compared to a blanket policy, a targeted approach results in a smaller death count. Yet, it is not a panacea: the recession is larger under such approach as the containment policy applies to a larger fraction of people, remains in place for longer, and herd immunity is achieved later. Moreover, we find that increased interactions between low- and high-risk individuals effectively reduce the benefits of a targeted approach to containment.
More from the GLO Coronavirus Cluster
GLO Discussion Papers are research and policy papers of the GLO Network which are widely circulated to encourage discussion. Provided in cooperation with EconStor, a service of the ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, GLO Discussion Papers are among others listed in RePEc (see IDEAS, EconPapers). Complete list of all GLO DPs – downloadable for free.
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